Dependence on Luck Varies with the Type of Startup
I have two thoughts today on how the dependence on luck can vary with the type of startup:
Painkiller startups require less luck than vitamin or candy startups.
Vitamins and candy require luck. Build a painkiller!
— Ed Trimble (@edtrimble) November 7, 2013
I saw Ed’s recent tweet and agree. First, to help define the common analogy:
- Vitamins – Are products that provide benefits but don’t solve problems. They’re about nutrition, prevention of harm, or some other benefit that you can understand but that you don’t really care about deep down.
- Candy – Are products that are fun to have, nice additions, icing on the cake, but non-essential.
- Painkillers – Are product that solve problems. They relieve pain and make things much better for people. They remove impediments that were hampering overall functionality.
When budgets get tight, vitamins and candy go out the window. Painkillers survive.
What caught my eye in Ed’s tweet is the connection to luck. He’s right. In selling vitamins and candy, you have to be lucky to catch the buyer in the right frame of mind. They need to be thinking healthy thoughts to want a vitamin, or they need to have a sweet tooth in the moment for some candy. People with pain are always in the right frame of mind for a painkiller. Less luck is required when selling a painkiller.
B2B startups require less luck than B2C startups.
The other thought is about the difference between B2C and B2B businesses. My impression is that B2C businesses require more luck. Grabbing the attention of consumers requires network effects and less controllable circumstances. B2B startups have more potential to grind their way to success through great execution.
What are your thoughts on these two luck-driving factors?